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Harden has 30 PP while splash has 40.
Therefore Metapod will begin to use struggle first.
However, Struggle recoils for ¼ hp.
Using this damage Formula ((((((((Level x 2 ÷ 5) + ) x BasePower x [SP]ATK ÷ 50) ÷ [Sp]Def) x Mod1) + 2) x CH x Mod2 x R ÷ 100) x STAB x Type1 x Type2 x Mod3)

For Metapod, using these values:
Level:9, because it will evolve at 10.
Base Power: 50, because that’s what Struggle has.
Atk: 20, Metapod’s base attack power.
Def: 55. Magikarp’s base defense.
Mod 1: 1, because Struggle takes no modifications.
CH: 1, because it is not a Critical Hit.
Mod 2: 1, because no modifications.
R: 92, Because it is a random number between 85 and 100, and I’m taking the median.
STAB: 1, because Struggle is typeless.
Type 1: 1, typeless.
Type 2: 1, Typeless.
Mod 3: 1, struggle takes no modifications.

Therefore, a LV9 Magikarp and a LV9 Metapod would have:
Magikarp: 30 HP.
Metapod: 60 HP.
And each turn Stuggle would hit Magikarp for 1.2 damage, rounded down, but recoil metapod for 15. After 4 turns of this, Magikarp would have 26 HP and Metapod would die.

Magikarp would win in 34 turns.

Source:
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Metapod_%28Pok%C3%A9mon%29
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Magikarp_%28Pok%C3%A9mon%29
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Damage
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Splash_%28move%29
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Harden_%28move%29
bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Struggle_%28move%29